07.5.2007

Bulgaria gives a tool of democratic ideals a try

SOFIA: With food, wine and ripples of laughter, more than 200 guests gathered for dinner at a Communist-era hotel on the edge of this capital for what seemed like a wedding party. Heckles pierced speeches, and the alcohol flowed.
But the gathering at the Park Hotel Moskva was one experiment in an innovation that a number of governments are testing, to reinvigorate the democratic process as they struggle with declining voting numbers and waning interest in public affairs. The experiment was also meant to inform leaders about which way an educated public would lean on difficult decisions.

The process, devised by a Stanford professor, James Fishkin, harks back to classical Greek democratic ideals, bringing together a random representative group, deepening the individuals' knowledge of an issue and allowing them to debate it. Polls of the group before and after the process provide concrete measures of change for decision-makers to study.

Called Deliberative Polling (the term has been trademarked), the process has been used by political groups and private companies, in places as far apart as Greece, China, Italy and Texas, and the European Union intends to use it before discussions on a new constitution this fall. But the debate here was the first try by a national government.
The question was one of the most intractable issues facing society here: how to improve the lives of Bulgaria's impoverished Roma, who make up about a tenth of the country's population of seven million. Most live in cramped neighborhoods outside the main towns and cities, a consequence of planning when the Communists were in power.
Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev pledged to use the results to shape policy. That was not a risk-free promise: just as citizens' assemblies in classical Athens voted to put Socrates to death, Bulgaria's poll risked producing some draconian measures.
The process began with an initial survey of 1,344 people, covering issues involving the Roma, commonly referred to as Gypsies, a term they object to, in housing, crime and education. From those surveyed, 255 were selected for the meeting, held in mid-April. They received briefing materials, including proposals from political parties, the government and nongovernmental organizations.

In Sofia, the day after their get-acquainted dinner, the participants gathered at the National Palace of Culture, a monolith that dominates a city center park, and divided into groups with trained moderators. Over two days, they debated with competing experts and politicians, posing questions they had formed in the small groups.
"Instead of a self-selected group who have an agenda, this is a way of getting a representative group that can get informed and think through issues," Fishkin said.
At the outset, the discussions tended to drift toward the extreme.
"They should be given just bread and water," said Mariana Draganova, a woman in her mid-40s, who suggested that Roma families lose welfare payments if a relative were jailed. "And maybe when they come out of prison they will think about turning to crime again."
A man in the same group suggested that all state benefits be cut for parents whose children skip school. One policy under discussion and advocated by a nationalist party proposed that all Roma neighborhoods be enclosed by high walls.

Six hours of the proceedings were broadcast on national television.
When the debate was over, the participants were surveyed again.
Those who thought "the Roma should live in separate Roma neighborhoods" declined to 21 percent from 43 percent. Those who wanted to see an increase in the number of Roma police officers rose to 52 percent from 32 percent. Those agreeing that "Roma schools should be closed and all the children should be transported by buses to their new school" rose to 66 percent from 42 percent.
The results were compiled by Fishkin, on hand to help supervise the event, and a colleague, Robert Luskin of the University of Texas. They appeared to indicate that most Bulgarians were more willing to support measures to integrate Roma into society, even though nationalist politicians use increasingly hostile language toward them.
"The general feeling from the debates," Stanishev said, was that "there is a high level of tolerance, which is the most important condition for their integration." He added, "It is much more difficult to gain confidence on the basis of something that has been decided in the party or in the institutions."
In Greece, the former foreign minister and current opposition leader George Papandreou helped organize a Deliberative Poll to select a Socialist Party candidate for mayor in Maroussi, an Athens suburb where many of the 2004 Olympic events were held.

Local governments have also found it useful. The Italian region of Lazio, which incorporates Rome, used the process recently to determine health care priorities. Participants decided to scrap hospital beds and spend the savings on other hospital services.
In February, when parents in Northern Ireland were questioned about educational reforms, a majority of respondents showed after deliberating that they were in favor of closer cooperation between Roman Catholic and Protestant education systems. That debunked the long-held view that most parents wanted their children educated separately.
But the polls do not always predict accurately. In Australia in 1999, a Deliberative Poll held before a referendum on the monarchy showed that most participants favored a republic. But Australia voted to keep its ties with the queen.
Fishkin put that down to a "modern political television campaign."
There are other notes of caution. Some observers here suggested that the atmosphere of a debate - in an official hall, with politicians on hand - meant that participants acted in a more broad-minded way, disguising prejudices they might express at home.

And a brief tour of the discussion groups in Sofia showed that the more gifted the speakers, the more they dominated the discussion. In Maroussi, the winner was the most self-assured speaker.
But that, too, harks back to ancient Greece. Plato mocked Athenian democracy as a tyranny of orators, not a redoubt of sound argument.

By Nicholas Wood
Published: May 7, 2007
http://www.iht.com/